Putin, Power and the Danger of Never Backing Down

After more than four years of war, Russia has still failed to defeat Ukraine. The war continues, Ukrainian forces are striking targets deep inside Russia, and the human cost for Russian forces remains enormous. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently said Russian forces were suffering more than 40,000 casualties a month.

So why does the war continue?

One possible answer is political pride. Putin has invested enormous personal and political power in the war. Admitting that the strategy has failed could therefore be much more difficult than continuing it.

This raises a fascinating question: When does determination become stubbornness? And when does confidence become dangerous arrogance?

There are similarities here with the way some extremist movements operate. Whether the ideology is political or religious, extremist groups can become trapped by absolute beliefs: the enemy is portrayed as evil, compromise becomes weakness, propaganda replaces debate, and sacrifice is presented as proof of commitment.

But reality eventually matters.

Russia is facing not only Ukraine, but a NATO alliance of 32 countries with enormous economic, technological and military resources. NATO has dramatically strengthened its eastern flank and says it now has its most comprehensive defence plans since the end of the Cold War.

If Russia were ever reckless enough to directly attack NATO, the calculation would be completely different from the war in Ukraine. NATO's purpose is not to conquer Russia. Its purpose is deterrence: making aggression so costly that it becomes an unattractive choice.

Perhaps that is the most important lesson.

Real strength is not the ability to sacrifice endless numbers of people. Real strength is knowing when reality demands a change of course.

Take care!

Prof. Carl Boniface

Escola de Ingles Para Profissionais

Questions to think about

1. Can determination become dangerous?

2. Why might an authoritarian leader find it difficult to admit failure?

3. Is military strength more effective when it prevents war rather than starts one?

4. What happens when political ideology becomes more important than reality?

5. Can a country be powerful militarily but still be strategically weak?

For discussion:Is Putin's greatest strength his determination — or could that same determination eventually become his greatest weakness?