Iran’s masterful chess tactics

You turn on the news trying to find out how the Middle East war is panning out, and then you can’t help thinking, so who is telling porky pies?

Whether it’s Sky News, CNN, ABC, the BBC, or Israeli news channels amongst others, international coverage is now available instantly on YouTube, making it easy for anyone with a hectic schedule to catch up on world events. Yet despite the endless analysis, many commentators — whether retired generals, political analysts, or so-called war strategy experts — often seem to avoid discussing what may be one of the most critical aspects of the conflict: the Strait of Hormuz situation.

It almost feels as though some are reluctant to fully address the long-term implications, perhaps because the reality is far more complicated and uncomfortable than the daily headlines suggest.

As of early May 2026, reports and estimates circulating amongst analysts and maritime observers suggest that between 1,600 and 2,000 ships, along with thousands of seafarers, have experienced significant disruption in or near the Persian Gulf following escalating tensions linked to the ongoing conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel.

Even if shipping lanes begin reopening in stages, fully restoring confidence in the Strait of Hormuz could take months, if not years. Mine-clearing operations, security concerns, insurance costs, and the constant threat of renewed instability all create enormous logistical challenges. Some shipping companies may be willing to take risks earlier than others, but genuine normalization is unlikely to happen overnight.

What makes the situation particularly interesting is the optimistic talk about business returning to normal in the foreseeable future, which may underestimate the scale of the challenge. After nearly 30 years of maintaining Avenger-class minesweeper vessels in the region, the US Navy recently decommissioned several of these aging ships.

These vessels were specifically designed to detect and deactivate naval mines — one of the most serious threats in strategic waterways such as the Strait of Hormuz. The irony is difficult to ignore: after decades stationed in the region largely as a precautionary force, many of these assets are no longer operational at a time when mine-clearing capabilities may once again prove essential.

This does not necessarily mean the United States and its allies are incapable of responding, but it does raise important questions about preparedness, long-term strategy, and whether the public fully understands the logistical complexity of maintaining secure maritime trade routes during major geopolitical conflicts.

So now you know some of the logistical realities behind the situation, you are probably thinking that all the money in the world does not always buy what is truly needed at the right moment. Iran was certainly viewed as a major threat, particularly because of years of hostile rhetoric towards Israel. However, talk is often cheap in international politics, and in hindsight some statements made by world leaders can sometimes be seen as words spoken in the heat of the moment rather than clear indications of inevitable war.

Perhaps the lesson here is that military power alone does not automatically solve every strategic problem. Sometimes the greatest vulnerabilities are not visible in dramatic headlines or televised debates, but hidden within supply chains, shipping routes, insurance markets, and the difficult realities of maintaining global trade under pressure.

Take care!

Prof. Carl Boniface

Vocabulary builder:

“Panning out” means to develop, succeed, or turn out in a particular way, usually referring to the outcome of a situation or plan. It is commonly used informally to indicate whether something works out well (“it panned out”) or fails (“it didn’t pan out”).

Common definitions of “pan”:

• Cooking utensil (noun): A metal container, often with a handle, used for frying, baking, or heating food.

• Criticism (verb): To harshly criticize or review something negatively.

• Camera movement (verb): To rotate a camera horizontally to scan a scene or follow a subject.

• Geological/industrial (noun): A shallow natural or artificial depression, or a container used for washing gravel to find gold.

• Prefix “pan-”: Meaning “all,” “every,” or “inclusive.”

“Porky pies” in British Cockney slang means lies. It comes from the rhyming phrase “pork pies” replacing the word “lies.” The expression is often shortened to “porkies.”

Examples:

• “Stop telling porkies!”

• “I think he’s telling porky pies.”

The term is widely used across the UK as a light-hearted or non-confrontational way of accusing someone of not telling the truth.

“In hindsight” means understanding a situation more clearly after it has already happened, often realizing what should have been done differently.

“In the heat of the moment” refers to doing or saying something impulsively while overwhelmed by strong emotions such as anger, fear, or excitement, often leading to later regret.